2023: Don’t Sit On The Fence

Nigerians have been advised to get involved in the electoral process in 2023 and not to adopt the past lackadaisical attitude that has not helped the country.

A number of politicians, analysts, groups and observers who spoke to our reporters and correspondents said that the next round of general election was critical to the survival of Nigeria as a country.

For some years now, it is usual to see many Nigerians fold their arms, saying it does not concern them whosoever wins a general election.

On the election day, many Nigerians prefer to sit in their cozy parlors watching the proceeding on the their television screens and making all manner of analyses.

But those who spoke with BusinessDay said if Nigeria must move forward, every hand must be on deck.

In a subtle sensitisation campaign recently, a concerned Nigerian posted on the social media a challenge to the educated members of the society who, despite their exposure have refused to take part in the electoral process.

The individual said: “The Almajiri has a PVC; Mai shayi has a PVC; Mai barrow has a PVC; Mai Debino has a PVC; Mai Gworo has a PVC; Gateman has a PVC; Onion & Tomato sellers have PVCs; Shoe shiner has a PVC; Sugar cane seller has a PVC; Bus Drivers/Conductors have PVC, and Motor park Agberos have PVC, but you (a student or a graduate with BSc or MSC holder) with all your education and exposure still don’t have PVC.

The worst thing is that you even try to justify why you don’t have one ‘my vote won’t count.’

“For the sake of those who paid your school fees and fed you through school, please don’t make all your education/exposure useless with statements like that. If votes don’t count, politicians won’t bribe/pay people to vote them.Go and get your PVC!”

Enough-is-Enough (EiE) Nigeria, a non-for-profit organisation, in a recent release contained in its Newsletter, urged all Nigerians to arm themselves with their permanent voters’ cards (PVCs), urging those yet to get theirs to make all necessary effort to do so.

EiE Nigeria said: “We recorded a 22.13percent increase in Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) in 2019. 2023 is now up to us! Remember that the final lap towards carrying out your civic duty as an electorate starts from getting your PVC so you can vote on election day.”

In an exclusive interview with our correspondent in Abuja, Ibrahim Shekarau said that the political future of Nigeria depended on the interest of the citizens.

In an interview with BusinessDay recently, the former governor of Kano State said: “Today, people still don’t have trust in government. And some of us in the political arena only see the people around in the name of party members. If you add all the 18 registered parties and all their members carrying their cards, they constitute a very insignificant percentage of Nigerians. So, why are we thinking only of patronage of party people? We must restore the confidence of the people. And this failure of confidence has led us to electing people that are not representative enough; all of us.”

The serving senator and former Education minister, further said: “On INEC record, we have over 82million registered voters. But from 1989 to date, at no time have we had up to 40 million people voting. We end up electing a president with 15 million people. There is therefore, that apathy to election. When we are doing the voter registration, the religious leaders, the traditional leaders will mobilise voters, some will even say unless you show your voters card you won’t go into the church; you won’t go into the hospital; etc., all in an effort to mobilise people to get registered.

“But what are we doing to encourage people to come out and vote? This is a challenge to the political parties, political leaders, to the electoral commission, civil societies, it’s a challenge to the media. Let everybody pose and ask this question; where are 50 million people when the election comes? Only 30 or 35 million people will vote and yet it is real in a register of 80 million. It is real it is not fake. So, then what are we doing to bring out these people? And if all of these millions will come out, you’ll discover that no elected government will take people for granted.”

According to him, “Regarding thuggery and electoral malpractices, if in a polling unit you have 500 registered voters and all of them come to vote, no thug will dare come there to snatch a box. But when they realise that only some few people will come out, maybe 10, 20 or 30 to vote, this gives the polling clerk the opportunity to do some fraud. This gives the opportunity to the thugs to come and snatch the ballot box. So, one of the steps is not a creation of the tribunal for election offenders. The question is what do you do to even stop the offence? It is more important. If I say we are getting election malpractice because we are not prosecuting people, yes that is true but what are we doing to even stop those who attempt to do fraud? If a large number come out, then you find that nobody will dare engage in malpractice. For instance, 400 people come out, no young man will think of coming to foment trouble.”

No democracy without voters

Of all the various definitions of democracy globally, the most universally famous is the one that refers to it as the “government of the people by the people and for the people.”

So, the meaning of the definition is that, it is the people that give impetus to democracy, and without people’s participation such a system cannot be referred to as democracy.

In such a system, it is the people that determine, through their votes, who occupies public office. But in Nigeria in recent decades, the reverse has been the case; voter turnout for election has increasingly become abysmally low.

According to the record from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the situation appears to have worsened in recent elections and has undermined the credibility of the election and the nation’s democratic process.

In Nigeria, voter apathy is a national trend that is perhaps, more worrisome in Southern Nigeria, irrespective of whether the election is a local or national election.

For instance, the recently concluded council election in Lagos State vividly captures the danger the trend poses to democratic processes in the country.

According to reports, only 18percent of the total voters registered actually voted during the election. A Similar situation had existed in 2017 LG polls, which was also marred by voter apathy, with only 17 percent of the total registered voters voting.

Also, for the first time in history since the return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria recorded the lowest rate of voter turnout of 34.75 percent at the last presidential election held in 2019.

That figure of voter turnout in the 2019 election in Nigeria is said to be the lowest of all recent elections held on the African continent, according to the data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (I-IDEA).

Similar situation happened in the federal legislative by-election that was held in March this year in Aba North/Aba South federal constituency of Abia State, in which the election witnessed only 3percent turnout; it meant that only about 3 in 100 registered voters showed up to vote at that particular election.

Observers say that the growing trend has serious implications on the prospect of deepening democracy in the country. In essence, it ensures that leaders who attain political power via the votes of the minority rule over the majority.

Although stakeholders have deduced several reasons for the trend, however, pundits say that part of the reasons is the increasing loss of confidence of the Nigerian voters in the electoral process and the political elite running the affairs of the state because of decades of bad leadership.

They are of the view that this also indirectly affects voter behaviour which leads to voter apathy.

“The current ruling elite have not really done much in changing the narrative because voters’ confidence has continually gone down the drain since the government has failed to yield to its campaign promises.

“I am afraid that this may further affect voters’ behaviour in future elections if the government or ruling elite do not rebuild public confidence in them and the electoral process,” Kunle Okunade, political analyst said.

Okunade added that the situation could likely change if elected public office holders become more responsive, fulfilling their campaign promises to the electorates, while stakeholders should embark on massive voter education.

“They can do this through following the dictate of the Electoral Act to the letter and change in the leadership behaviour. The ruling elite need to change their leadership toga from public fund exploiters to public goods providers.

“With this, voters would have belief and trust in the political elite and thereby change their political behaviour from apathy to participatory. INEC should also carry out voter education across the country,” he added.

Tunde Daramola, a former national Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party, said years of bad governance and leadership failure was a major reason for voter apathy in Nigeria, adding that Nigerians had lost confidence in the electoral system.

According to him, “People are not happy with the way things are done here; I mean Nigerians are hungry and you want them to vote. Governments have failed at all levels, the apathy is because of the belief that their votes would not count.

“People are refusing to vote because they are not happy with the system, so there must be a holistic change in the way we do things.”

However, political analyst, Kehinde kayode, said the problem is caused by several factors in the country that must be tackled for the trend to change.

According to her, “Voter apathy in Nigeria is tied to three important factors which include an increased uneducated population; second, a huge disconnect of the peoples’ trust in the electoral process and government, and third, common scenario of electoral violence in Nigeria.

“If all of the above factors are not addressed and reduced to the barest minimum possible, the case of voter apathy will forever linger on in Nigeria and continue to endanger our democracy.

“The question we necessarily need to ask is to what extent we have as a country addressed these issues when we are putting out programmes or projects to address apathy?”

The analyst also pointed out that “We must know that a solution to one of the factors causing voter apathy is dependent on the other. For Instance, even when we have an increase in the number of people who are educated, do we have a corresponding increase in ensuring the safety of voters during elections? And to what extent has the government- people trust improved with electoral result transparency?”

Like in 1993, free, fair poll still possible

Many observers of Nigerian politics will easily agree that the June 12, 1993 general election was very successful and unarguably, the freest election in the history of Nigerian democracy.

Well, credit goes to the electorate for the massive turnout, which even the international observers commended and acclaimed to be the highest in any election in Africa then.

The massive turnout was probably because Nigerians were tired of the long years of military rule and were out to unseat the junta through their votes.

Sadly today, subsequent elections have been having very poor turnout across the country, especially in the Southern part of the country.

The voter apathy is even alarming in the last two general elections won by the All Progressives Congress (APC).

But most political observers blame the apathy on the unfulfilled campaign promises of the politicians, hence, making voters doubt whatever is promised and even refusing to vote again.

“Our votes do not count,” many aggrieved voters always lament.

Recall that APC, the ruling party, which used ‘Change’ as its campaign slogan in 2015 when it was in opposition, asked Nigerians to vote for them as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the then ruling party, according to APC, has failed to fulfil its campaign promises.

Today, many, even party members are more aggrieved as their party hardly fulfil the smallest campaign promise, observers noted.

Decrying the growing lack of interest among voters, Sam Ajanaku Onikoyi, a Nigerian historian and Commonwealth researcher based in Brussels, said it is the expression of anger by the voters, who have discovered that their votes do not count, though it is the worst way to go about it.

“Though I am now based in Belgium, I still follow our politics. My father and many other aggrieved voters did not vote in the last general election because the candidates everybody wanted for the Senate and House of Representatives were rigged out during the primaries. For him, their votes will not count as the machinery that rigged the primaries will also rig the main election in the favour of the candidates who many distaste for their arrogance, ill-gotten wealth and intimidation of locals,” he said.

However, he regretted that such actions only made them disenfranchise themselves, giving the politicians opportunity to rig.

As bad as voter apathy is, Chijoke Umelahi, a former Abia lawmaker, said that it is a reflection of realities for the voters, who always see their efforts on Election Day being fruitless with questionable election results.

Speaking from experience, the former Abia lawmaker said he has several witnessed imposition of candidates at ninth hour, resulting in the people sitting back, yet huge results were announced in such areas and the people wonder if spirits were the ones that voted as they did not come out.

“In one of the elections in Ihechiowa in Arochukwu, a party bigwig and moneybag told the people that whether they vote or not that their party candidate is going to win the House of Representative. The people did not vote and the candidate won without votes”, he said, lamenting that such situations make voters sit on the fence.

But sitting on the fence comes with a huge cost.

The lawyer-turned politician decried that voter apathy is the bane of poor governance as the informed voters sit at home and allow touts and those bought with mere N1000 to decide their collective future.

Going practical, Umelahi explained the risk of voter apathy saying, if three candidates are contesting for an electoral position and one is favoured by the people but does not have money, the people should support him at all cost to win because if the others use touts to get to power, they will continue with their touts, intimidation and no development.

Making reference with the advice given to Rivers youths by Chibuike Amaechi, minister of transportation, during one of the presidential campaigns in Rivers State, Magnus Okpeti, a Political Science lecturer at the University of Port Harcourt, said that the former governor charged the youths to go for power as politicians will not relinquish power to them without fierce challenge.

Considering that advice, the aggrieved Ogoni-born Okpete said sitting at home on Election Day is giving up on oneself and change cannot come by doing the same thing.

“We need to go beyond coming out in mass to vote, to defending our votes and sacking our tormentors. But voter apathy will not guarantee any change in voters’ favour,” he said.

He argued that many blame the growing voter apathy on rigging and especially intimidation by security operatives before and on the Election Day, but that such are expected and voters should know better and counter such intimidation with mass turnout.

“We all saw what happened at the Anambra election recently. Before the election, there were killings, insecurity everywhere and fear that the people would not come out to vote, but some stakeholders went underground to tell the people that the only way to fight the enemies of the state and gain their common interest is to come out and vote. Things changed dramatically. People understood the game plan and countered it,” Okpeti said.

In the same vein, Umelahi insisted that votes will count if people are determined to change the situation.

“There is an extent you can rig or intimidate the people. With what is happening, the ruling party cannot win an election in the East and South South. So, the only option is rigging and intimidation, which the people are resisting fiercely now. If we say no to their policies or candidates, the ruling party and its government cannot kill all of us because this is democracy, it is only fear that is making people chicken out,” Umelahi said.

For Onikoyi, there is no need to fear again because the voters have not benefited from the dividends of democracy and if this gets into the consciousness of the voters, they will resist intimidations and turnout in mass to vote out the bad eggs.

Making emphasis on the need to turnout in mass to cast their votes, Onikoyi warned voters, saying, “Do not fear that your votes will not count, vote first and defend your votes. June 12, 1993 general election is being lauded today because the voters are still insisting that their votes must count even after over two decades of its annulment.”

My worries with Nigeria’s brand of electorate – Sonaiya

Oluremi Sonaiya, a professor, panellist at AELEX law firm’s webinar session titled ‘The Nigeria We Want, Economic, Political, and Social Justice’ on Wednesday, December 1, 2021, said: “We all know that ‘stomach infrastructure’ matters a lot, and people sell and purchase votes; you’ll also hear things like, you know this guy is from my neighbourhood, or you know this person shares my religion during elections.”

Nigerians may also choose a candidate based on the size of the party. The fact that the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) received the larger chunk of votes in the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections resulted in the conclusion that voting for candidates from other parties may be a waste of time or may have little or no impact.

“Honestly, we are not making well-informed choices,” Sonaiya admitted, adding: “It’s almost as though we’re the ones who put our necks in the loops and demand that they be tightened. Nigerians persuade themselves that they do not want to squander their votes by voting for someone who is unlikely to win.”

She also noted that about 10 percent of the population is responsible for electing those who are in power. “That leaves us with 90 people to work with; imagine if they all resolved to do things differently; things would start to shift,” she said.

Nigeria’s first female presidential contender further said: “I believe it is past time for us to genuinely begin to be analytical, to scrutinise people, and to begin to be rational in our election choices. Why do we keep voting for people who have clear records of either fraud or even a criminal past, and so on, when we know so much about them and their character? Are those the ideals we want to see in those who will lead us? As a result, these are critical challenges for us. We must be unbiased when it comes to ethnicity, religion, and other factors. We need people with character, we need people with competence, and those should begin to be the prerequisites that we consider before we make our choices.”