The political economy of migration in Nigeria

People have an innate desire to be mobile. The recently released 2022 Henley Global Mobility Report noted that given the international misalignment between resources and populations, people “need to be able to move to survive and pursue educational, employment, and business opportunities.”

Increased inward and cross-border migration, the report further noted, “is a necessity, both to address the growing mobility divide and to help revive the global economy by boosting productivity and restoring business dynamism.”

In Nigeria, a combination of rising unemployment, booming demographics, and unfulfilled aspirations is increasing the pressure on young Nigerians to migrate internationally in search of gainful employment.

Many Nigerian households are dependent on remittances from household members who have migrated abroad. The country continues to dominate remittance inflows into sub-Saharan Africa given the exceptional size of the Nigerian migrant base (an estimated 800,000 persons) concentrated in two key host countries, the United States (375,000) and the United Kingdom (220,000).

Though changes in legislation in the US and the EU have tightened requirements for immigration, the movement of African nationals to key host countries has continued at a quick pace, says the World Bank. Between 2010 and 2018, the African-born population in the US surged by 52 percent to more than 2 million, versus 12 percent growth for the total foreign-born population. Immigrants to the US have included refugees from conflict-ridden countries, and highly skilled workers and students from Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Asylum applicants have driven the flow of migrants to Europe, amounting to 1 million between 2010 and 2018.

Agusto Consulting in its 2021 Nigeria Diaspora Remittance Report found that Nigeria gets over $21 billion annually in inflows from diaspora remittances, making it the second-largest recipient of remittances on the continent, only after Egypt. The remittances from the Nigerian diaspora, it suggested, have become a major mainstay of the country’s economy. The report further found that, at the macro level, diaspora remittances represent the second-largest source of foreign exchange inflow into the country, second only to crude oil earnings.

The World Bank in November 2021, noted, “After contracting by 14.1 percent in 2020, remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa are expected to recover in 2021—registering a growth of 6.2 percent to reach $45 billion. Nigeria, the largest recipient in the region, is experiencing a moderate rebound in remittance flows, in part due to the increasing traction of novel policies intended to channel inflows through the banking system.”

Africa’s biggest economy’s working-age population data were reported at 122,049,400.000 persons in December 2020, an increase from the previous number of 116,871,186.000 persons for June 2020, at the same time, unemployment is surging towards 40 percent.

The country is seeing rapid growth in its working-age populations. Yet often, noted the World Bank in a 2021 report, “these increasingly educated and skilled young people cannot find meaningful work within their countries of origin, either because their skills are not well aligned to the needs of employers or because there is an absolute lack of roles available. This is creating emigration pressure, with many seeking opportunities elsewhere, leading to fears of “brain drain” within countries of origin.

“At the same time, high-income countries such as those in Europe are seeing rapid decreases in their working-age populations. Employers within these countries are facing significant skill shortages, which is reducing productivity and investment.”

Nigeria’s youth are increasingly looking to other economies for work. A Gallup poll conducted before the 2019 presidential elections showed that roughly half of all Nigerians said it was a “bad time” to find a job in the economy.

The proportion of youth planning to leave Nigeria permanently increased from 36 percent in 2014 to 52 percent in 2018, one of the highest levels in sub-Saharan Africa. The desire to migrate is highest among unemployed yet educated urban youth.

This desire is translating into increased emigration rates from Nigeria. In absolute numbers, the number of international migrants from Nigeria has increased from around 450,000 in 1990 to 1.4 million in 2019.

Read also: Hospitals struggle to retain staff amid migration tsunami

Migration from Nigeria will continue and is likely to increase. Michael Clemens in 2020, demonstrated the existence of a “migration hump”, whereby low-income countries exhibit increasingly high emigration pressure up to a turning point (approximately $10,000 GDP per capita). Given Nigeria’s current economic growth, it is likely, the world bank report asserts, that emigration pressure will continue from the country for decades to come.

Henley & partners note, “Despite the apparent increase in global mobility, the gap between those at the top of the Henley Passport Index and those at the bottom is at its widest in the index’s 17-year history.”

Passport holders from top-ranking Japan and Singapore are able to travel visa-free to 166 more destinations than Nigerian nationals, who sit at 98th place on the index with access to just 45 countries, mainly in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and the Caribbean without requiring a visa in advance. This growing gap in mobility inequality, between the global haves and the have nots, has been aggravated by the covid pandemic.

Kwame Anthony Appiah, professor of philosophy and law at New York University, noted in a recent essay that, “disparities between the global north and south are likely to be a feature of crises to come. The tale of two pandemics…is a tale of two international orders. The post-pandemic challenge, in turn, is to take seriously the rhetoric of an ‘international community’, and integrate the two into one.”

The number of people in extreme poverty around the world, he further noted, has risen for the first time since 1997. “The story of rising global interdependence is also one of rising equality among the nations.”

As long as there is global inequality and a local economy that excludes millions of Nigerians, Nigerians will continue to leave the country.